Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Marsoften banned
Red · 7 games
Dark Willow
Bombi · 4 games
Grimstroke
Bombi · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Abaddon
Ohaiyo · 2 games
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 2 games
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Hyde · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hyde · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
407 picks · 292 bans
Mars
385 picks · 554 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 177 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 727 bans
Queen of Pain
297 picks · 360 bans
Kunkka
240 picks · 412 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
496 Gaming 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaGhost
Phantom AssassinGabbi
Queen of Painxsilearn
Ember SpiritMikoto
Spirit BreakerRed
Marskpii
GrimstrokeBombi
LionHyde
Death ProphetOhaiyo
DazzleFly
Game 2prediction correct21:46
496 Gaming 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageGhost
LunaGabbi
Kunkkaxsilearn
Doomkpii
Night StalkerRed
Queen of PainMikoto
Dark WillowBombi
WeaverFly
GrimstrokeOhaiyo
LionHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 78%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2