Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Silencersignature
Solo · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
ALOHADANCE · 8 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 6 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 6 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
404 picks · 291 bans
Mars
384 picks · 549 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 177 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 722 bans
Queen of Pain
294 picks · 355 bans
Kunkka
238 picks · 410 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:40
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 53:55.
Game 2prediction missed30:27
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 75%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2