Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectsloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
402 picks · 289 bans
Mars
384 picks · 549 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 177 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 718 bans
Queen of Pain
292 picks · 352 bans
Kunkka
237 picks · 407 bans
Disruptor
232 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
CIS Rejects 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 19:53.
Game 2prediction correct34:20
CIS Rejects 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 40:54.
Game 3prediction correct37:47
CIS Rejects 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 47:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3