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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 4 games
75%
Io
Iooften banned
Boxi · 4 games
25%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
KuroKy · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
401 picks · 287 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 548 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 177 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 718 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
290 picks · 352 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
237 picks · 405 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
232 picks · 156 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 313 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Team Liquid 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMATUMBAMAN
45% · 138 games52% · 102 games
DoomMiracle-
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritmiCKe
52% · 210 games42% · 172 games
Queen of PainiLTW
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
54% · 178 games49% · 89 games
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
50% · 186 games45% · 246 games
RubickGH
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
62% · 70 games52% · 173 games
Shadow DemonKuroKy
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed22:44
Team Liquid 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
46% · 129 games55% · 155 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
43% · 218 games53% · 148 games
JuggernautiLTW
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
49% · 121 game53% · 131 game
BloodseekerMinD_ContRoL
Bloodseeker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
53% · 323 games49% · 360 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Gyrocopter
GyrocopteriNSaNiA
49% · 155 games49% · 152 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Team Liquid 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
45% · 113 games53% · 136 games
UrsaiLTW
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
58% · 186 games44% · 165 games
Queen of PainMiracle-
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckmiCKe
53% · 271 game39% · 86 games
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
Outworld Destroyer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
52% · 120 games50% · 220 games
Nyx AssassinGH
Nyx Assassin
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
53% · 93 games51% · 176 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3