Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
398 picks · 286 bans
Mars
382 picks · 547 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 716 bans
Queen of Pain
288 picks · 351 bans
Kunkka
236 picks · 404 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 155 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:38
Chicken Fighters 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 48:31.
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Chicken Fighters 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 35:01.
Game 3prediction correct13:33
Chicken Fighters 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 60%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3