DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 45 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 24 games
Muerta
Save- · 23 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 19 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 19 games
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 32 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Axesignature
Noticed · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
622 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 627 bans
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 988 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 468 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
Warlock
417 picks · 260 bans
Mars
394 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Team Yandex 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezKiritych
ClinkzWatson
LargoMieRo
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Monkey KinggpK~
MarsNoticed
WarlockKataomi
Shadow ShamanSaksa
LionSave-
MarciMalady
Game 2prediction missed47:20
BETBOOM TEAM 48%Team Yandex 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerKiritych
Shadow FiendWatson
EnigmaMieRo
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember SpiritgpK~
UnderlordNoticed
MarciSave-
MuertaSaksa
DisruptorKataomi
ClockwerkMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2