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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Steelborco · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Zore · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Steelborco · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 2 games
0%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Bane
Banesignature
Overlom · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
bgod · 4 games
75%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
392 picks · 285 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 542 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
309 picks · 176 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
299 picks · 714 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
283 picks · 347 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
234 picks · 400 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
231 picks · 154 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 75%
Hero pool strength63% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:34
Felt 30%5RATFORCESTAFF 70%
The model gave 70% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKom4rt
49% · 52 games43% · 77 games
UrsaITALIANO GANGSTA
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawZore
50% · 233 games49% · 233 games
MarsTingleK1ng
Mars
Leshrac
Leshracsolji
47% · 171 game57% · 112 games
Invokerred2
Invoker
Bane
BaneSteelborco
53% · 204 games57% · 145 games
AbaddonOverlom
Abaddon
43% · 93 games
Dark Willowbgod
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed39:29
Felt 32%5RATFORCESTAFF 68%
The model gave 68% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Felt in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKom4rt
50% · 123 games51% · 43 games
SvenITALIANO GANGSTA
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsolji
49% · 201 game49% · 73 games
Queen of Painred2
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeZore
43% · 76 games47% · 136 games
PangolierTingleK1ng
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSteelborco
57% · 98 games49% · 146 games
Hoodwinkbgod
Hoodwink
54% · 100 games
BaneOverlom
Bane
Game 3prediction missed33:36
Felt 29%5RATFORCESTAFF 71%
The model gave 71% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Felt in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperKom4rt
54% · 7 games42% · 67 games
Queen of Painred2
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsolji
54% · 149 games60% · 71 game
Templar AssassinITALIANO GANGSTA
Templar Assassin
Axe
AxeZore
42% · 47 games40% · 41 game
Legion CommanderTingleK1ng
Legion Commander
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSteelborco
54% · 91 game46% · 55 games
Dark Willowbgod
Dark Willow
52% · 60 games
BaneOverlom
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 82%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3