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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CHILLAX

No games played over 6 months.

Team Bald Reborn

Pangolier
Pangolier
Rajjix · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Excalibur · 4 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Eixn · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pablo · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pablo · 2 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Eixn · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
391 picks · 283 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 541 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
309 picks · 176 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 712 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
282 picks · 345 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
232 picks · 400 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
229 picks · 154 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
227 picks · 308 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
CHILLAX 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:44.
Game 2prediction correct23:37
CHILLAX 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 36:51.
Game 3prediction correct42:17
CHILLAX 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 36:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 61%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3