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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 10 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 10 games
20%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Ark · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Askold · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
38%

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 24 games
46%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 21 game
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
389 picks · 283 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 541 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
309 picks · 176 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 710 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
280 picks · 344 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
232 picks · 398 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
228 picks · 154 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
227 picks · 308 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total67% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:35
Fantastic Five 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArk
47% · 152 games58% · 148 games
PuckAinkrad
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
46% · 169 games29% · 10 games
SniperKiritych
Sniper
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCorrupted
39% · 95 games62% · 45 games
Night StalkerTheChosenOne
Night Stalker
52% · 108 games
Monkey KingHeaven
Monkey King
58% · 105 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Fantastic Five 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArk
55% · 102 games52% · 37 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
43% · 128 games46% · 42 games
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
Legion Commander
Jakiro
JakiroCorrupted
55% · 18 games56% · 38 games
Dragon KnightAinkrad
Dragon Knight
50% · 68 games
IoHeaven
Io
49% · 63 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct30:34
Fantastic Five 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArk
42% · 122 games58% · 99 games
Wraith KingKiritych
Wraith King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCorrupted
37% · 111 games67% · 188 games
PuckAinkrad
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
44% · 186 games67% · 12 games
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
Vengeful Spirit
42% · 65 games
Monkey KingHeaven
Monkey King
67% · 55 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 67%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3