Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Pangolier
Lym- · 15 games
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 11 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
Nature's Prophet
db- · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Force · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 8 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Force · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
388 picks · 280 bans
Mars
373 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 342 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
229 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total83% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:35
Army Geniuses 29%Polaris Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razordb-
Monkey KingNatsumi
TinkerAzur4
LinaMac
MarswoMy
TidehunterForce
DisruptorVarizh
WeaverBoomy
RubickLym-
Snapfirecml
Game 2prediction correct22:31
Army Geniuses 28%Polaris Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaAzur4
Troll WarlordNatsumi
TimbersawwoMy
BatriderMac
Monkey Kingdb-
Queen of PainBoomy
GrimstrokeLym-
MarsForce
AbaddonVarizh
Banecml
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 83%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2