Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoPing VPNloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Marssignature
Oscar · 17 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 13 games
Lionsignature
Michael · 12 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 11 games
Abaddon
Panda · 10 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Banesignature
Panda · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
385 picks · 279 bans
Mars
371 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
275 picks · 339 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 308 bans
Kunkka
232 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Lava 46%NoPing VPN 54%
The model gave 54% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 37:13.
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Lava 46%NoPing VPN 54%
The model gave 54% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 39:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 54%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2