Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Void Spirit
Mark · 5 games
Disruptor
Chen · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 4 games
Jakiro
Chen · 4 games
Team DogChamp
Pangolier
lukiluki · 4 games
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Disruptor
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
385 picks · 279 bans
Mars
371 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
275 picks · 339 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 308 bans
Kunkka
232 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:39
Team Magnus 48%Team DogChamp 52%
The model gave 52% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJack
Phantom LancerStoneBank
KunkkaSakata Gintoki
Marslukiluki
PuckMark
Ogre MagiBloody Nine
Miranatxhyoo1
Lionyarintheslayer
BaneChen
Game 2prediction correct36:44
Team Magnus 45%Team DogChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreJack
UrsaStoneBank
PuckMark
Pangolierlukiluki
Spirit BreakerSakata Gintoki
Lionyarintheslayer
Earthshakertxhyoo1
SilencerBloody Nine
WeaverChen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 60%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2