Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Grimstrokesignature
ALOHADANCE · 7 games
Silencersignature
Solo · 7 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
384 picks · 278 bans
Mars
371 picks · 538 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 710 bans
Queen of Pain
272 picks · 339 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 156 bans
Kunkka
231 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 81%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:26
Natus Vincere 26%Team Spirit 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:12:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNo[o]ne
KunkkaYatoro
UrsaV-Tune
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
BeastmasterGeneRaL
Sand KingCollapse
SilencerSolo
Treant ProtectorMira
BaneALOHADANCE
RubickMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct7:27
Natus Vincere 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingV-Tune
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
PuckNo[o]ne
Queen of PainYatoro
Spirit BreakerGeneRaL
UnderlordCollapse
WeaverALOHADANCE
Shadow DemonMira
Ancient ApparitionSolo
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
Game 3prediction correct19:31
Natus Vincere 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerV-Tune
Troll WarlordYatoro
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Spirit BreakerGeneRaL
Night StalkerCollapse
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
WeaverMira
SilencerSolo
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3