Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Interitusloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Linaoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 4 games
Tusk
Genek · 4 games
Hoodwink
d1smar · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cara · 2 games
Clinkz
NaoG · 2 games
Disruptor
Genek · 2 games
Interitus
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 5 games
Bane
DFlash · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 3 games
Rubick
Amin · 3 games
Bristleback
FCR · 2 games
Jakiro
DFlash · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Marsoften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
383 picks · 278 bans
Mars
370 picks · 537 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 187 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 708 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 308 bans
Kunkka
230 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
229 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Gorillaz-Pride 54%Interitus 46%
The model gave 54% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNaoG
Queen of PainSooths
LinaTaO
LunaFCR
TidehunterCara
TimbersawH1j4ck
Hoodwinkd1smar
Nyx AssassinAmin
BaneGenek
DisruptorDFlash
Game 2prediction correct40:30
Gorillaz-Pride 55%Interitus 45%
The model gave 55% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNaoG
Storm SpiritSooths
MarsCara
UrsaFCR
InvokerTaO
TidehunterH1j4ck
Snapfired1smar
HoodwinkAmin
DisruptorGenek
Ogre MagiDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 57%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2