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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
79%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Panto · 12 games
42%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
yamich · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
58%

B8 Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Dendi · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
25%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
Sammyboy · 13 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Watson · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
382 picks · 276 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 538 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 191 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 712 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 339 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 159 bans
49%
Kunkka
Kunkka
227 picks · 392 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 12%
Hero pool strength56% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Winstrike Team 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDaxak
54% · 115 games51% · 93 games
Kunkkav1olent-
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
48% · 142 games54% · 112 games
BatriderDendi
Batrider
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNoticed
52% · 75 games49% · 86 games
Sand KingpJonn
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
43% · 30 games49% · 163 games
SnapfireLagoona
Snapfire
Clockwerk
Clockwerkforcemajor
46% · 92 games
Game 2prediction correct27:8
Winstrike Team 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 25:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDaxak
52% · 89 games55% · 304 games
Wraith Kingv1olent-
Wraith King
Mars
MarsNoticed
47% · 274 games43% · 219 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
53% · 162 games47% · 161 game
Dark SeerpJonn
Dark Seer
Io
Ioforcemajor
54% · 111 games48% · 122 games
Spirit BreakerLagoona
Spirit Breaker
Lion
LionSoNNeikO
52% · 170 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 68%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2