Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CIS Rejectsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Silencersignature
Solo · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
ALOHADANCE · 6 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
374 picks · 271 bans
Mars
370 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 198 bans
Weaver
306 picks · 717 bans
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 335 bans
Ember Spirit
240 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 154 bans
Io
227 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 86%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:13
Natus Vincere 19%CIS Rejects 81%
The model gave 81% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:39.
Game 2prediction missed28:10
Natus Vincere 19%CIS Rejects 81%
The model gave 81% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 19:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2