Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:1series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Chicken Fighterswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Grimstroke
Nikolica · 3 games
Marsoften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Yellow Flash · 2 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Bane
Flash · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
376 picks · 270 bans
Mars
375 picks · 533 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
310 picks · 720 bans
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 311 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Io
232 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 82%
Hero pool strength54% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total85% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
No Bounty Hunter 15%Chicken Fighters 85%
The model gave 85% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 85%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1