Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lionsignature
boombell · 23 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
Mirana
Q · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
376 picks · 270 bans
Mars
375 picks · 533 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
310 picks · 720 bans
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 311 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Io
232 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:16
T1 65%Motivate.Trust Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:17.
Game 2prediction missed13:26
T1 65%Motivate.Trust Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 39:47.
Game 3prediction missed21:21
T1 65%Motivate.Trust Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 41:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 65%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3