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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
PlayHard · 3 games
0%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 272 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 536 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 200 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
312 picks · 722 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 339 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 311 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
240 picks · 154 bans
50%
Io
Io
234 picks · 596 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 74%
Hero pool strength70% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total89% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:32
TNC Predator 22%BOOM Esports 78%
The model gave 78% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
49% · 146 games45% · 134 games
Phantom AssassinTino-
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerYowe
51% · 169 games49% · 246 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
46% · 394 games53% · 99 games
Outworld DestroyerFbz
Outworld Destroyer
Rubick
RubickPlayHard
45% · 163 games50% · 284 games
PangolierTims
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFebby
63% · 79 games54% · 188 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Game 2prediction correct31:38
TNC Predator 23%BOOM Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerYowe
54% · 199 games45% · 142 games
RazorTino-
Razor
Wraith King
Wraith KingYoungGodLevi
53% · 203 games49% · 183 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerxiaoyu154
48% · 106 games47% · 192 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
56% · 321 game48% · 211 games
TidehunterSkem
Tidehunter
Bane
BaneFebby
58% · 214 games42% · 315 games
LionTims
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 89%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2