Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
King Of Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 7 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
Abaddon
Panda · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
374 picks · 272 bans
Mars
372 picks · 535 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 202 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 720 bans
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
240 picks · 311 bans
Io
234 picks · 604 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% King Of Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
Thunder Awaken 84%King Of Kings 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 42:48.
Game 2prediction correct29:21
Thunder Awaken 84%King Of Kings 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 41:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 84%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2