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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolier
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 12 games
25%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 17 games
88%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Blizzy · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 535 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 271 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 202 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 727 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
262 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
243 picks · 155 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 312 bans
54%
Io
Io
237 picks · 611 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 68%
Hero pool strength65% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:23
Spider Pigzs 30%Hydra 70%
The model gave 70% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinThuG
39% · 141 game49% · 135 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
45% · 216 games54% · 121 game
Queen of PainAskold
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingFunn1k
51% · 85 games60% · 157 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightdnz
53% · 109 games55% · 203 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Weaver
WeaverOmaR
47% · 219 games49% · 154 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed33:21
Spider Pigzs 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
46% · 330 games56% · 131 game
KunkkaBlizzy
Kunkka
Wraith King
Wraith KingThuG
54% · 175 games59% · 115 games
RazorKami
Razor
Viper
ViperFunn1k
45% · 70 games46% · 380 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
47% · 208 games43% · 81 game
Spirit BreakerMuka
Spirit Breaker
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderdnz
48% · 73 games55% · 149 games
Ancient ApparitionZayac
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed42:18
Spider Pigzs 32%Hydra 68%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingThuG
56% · 182 games45% · 140 games
Queen of PainAskold
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerNo!ob
51% · 160 games46% · 156 games
LunaKami
Luna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFunn1k
54% · 89 games45% · 58 games
Legion CommanderBlizzy
Legion Commander
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
51% · 173 games52% · 153 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Lich
Lichdnz
48% · 18 games50% · 115 games
Elder TitanZayac
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 80%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3