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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 22 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 38 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
61%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 27 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
59%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
laise · 21 game
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 534 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 268 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 202 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 727 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
259 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 155 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 312 bans
54%
Io
Io
237 picks · 608 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head9 – 3
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:3
Nemiga Gaming 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
46% · 149 games46% · 147 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAinkrad
56% · 127 games60% · 46 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
53% · 201 game37% · 127 games
Queen of PainhAze
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
54% · 111 games44% · 238 games
GrimstrokeAntares
Grimstroke
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
61% · 204 games48% · 234 games
Abaddonantoha
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Nemiga Gaming 52%V-Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
56% · 40 games48% · 89 games
KunkkaTA2000
Kunkka
Viper
ViperAinkrad
52% · 40 games49% · 81 game
Queen of PainhAze
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTheChosenOne
56% · 52 games63% · 18 games
Necrophoslaise
Necrophos
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHeaven
40% · 116 gameslittle data
TechiesAntares
Techies
Visage
VisageVANSKOR
41% · 12 games52% · 72 games
Disruptorantoha
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed11:33
Nemiga Gaming 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
46% · 17 games52% · 161 game
LunaTA2000
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
50% · 137 games41% · 106 games
Queen of PainhAze
Queen of Pain
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTheChosenOne
50% · 58 games47% · 55 games
Spirit Breakerlaise
Spirit Breaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
48% · 102 games54% · 27 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
49% · 122 games63% · 87 games
Treant Protectorantoha
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3