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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
42%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 21 game
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
53%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
69%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 16 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Shisui · 15 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 8 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 534 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 269 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 205 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 728 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
259 picks · 339 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
242 picks · 156 bans
50%
Io
Io
242 picks · 611 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 312 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Team Empire 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglightless
52% · 198 games47% · 122 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Pugna
PugnaErgon
49% · 21 game50% · 144 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherGhostik
49% · 52 games52% · 159 games
TidehunterDM
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker[T]SA
53% · 115 games46% · 96 games
Queen of Painyamich
Queen of Pain
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKaori
51% · 253 games48% · 118 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct10:25
Team Empire 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlightless
64% · 185 games46% · 215 games
LinagpK~
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritErgon
47% · 191 game49% · 154 games
RazorPure~
Razor
Doom
DoomGhostik
45% · 121 game48% · 341 game
MarsDM
Mars
Grimstroke
Grimstroke[T]SA
36% · 242 games56% · 214 games
Weaveryamich
Weaver
Bane
BaneKaori
59% · 257 games51% · 72 games
UndyingXakoda
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2