?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Yds · 14 games
43%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
ELeVeN · 11 games
36%

Team Aster

Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Xxs · 11 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 536 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
378 picks · 267 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 208 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
316 picks · 735 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
259 picks · 343 bans
51%
Io
Io
246 picks · 618 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
243 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 311 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:17
Vici Gaming 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
53% · 306 games50% · 125 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Doom
DoomIrving
59% · 157 games46% · 386 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
47% · 198 games45% · 259 games
PuckOri
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierYds
52% · 337 games49% · 239 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Silencer
SilencerVictoria
54% · 81 game45% · 70 games
Ogre MagiFantasy
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct15:28
Vici Gaming 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
48% · 172 games56% · 321 game
Wraith KingMonet
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
49% · 315 games46% · 202 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsIrving
48% · 573 games50% · 370 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverYds
56% · 213 games49% · 408 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVictoria
47% · 367 games51% · 339 games
SnapfireFantasy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2