Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 12 games
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
376 picks · 533 bans
Bane
370 picks · 266 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
316 picks · 732 bans
Queen of Pain
247 picks · 340 bans
Io
241 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
239 picks · 155 bans
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Team Spirit 95%AS Monaco Gambit 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:59.
Game 2prediction correct35:25
Team Spirit 95%AS Monaco Gambit 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2