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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 10 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 10 games
20%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Ark · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Askold · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
38%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 17 games
88%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 13 games
77%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Blizzy · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Muka · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 531 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
368 picks · 265 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 729 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
244 picks · 338 bans
50%
Io
Io
240 picks · 604 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 307 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 155 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 68%
Hero pool strength66% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:33
Fantastic Five 34%Hydra 66%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 49:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArk
52% · 128 games42% · 50 games
Phantom LancerKami
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
47% · 326 games50% · 258 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCorrupted
45% · 74 games54% · 75 games
KunkkaBlizzy
Kunkka
50% · 73 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
62% · 72 games
Keeper of the LightZayac
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed47:27
Fantastic Five 36%Hydra 64%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaArk
52% · 106 games50% · 54 games
RazorKami
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
51% · 119 games49% · 87 games
Death ProphetAskold
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaCorrupted
49% · 56 games39% · 19 games
UnderlordBlizzy
Underlord
45% · 47 games
DisruptorZayac
Disruptor
57% · 74 games
IoMuka
Io
Game 3prediction correct8:29
Fantastic Five 33%Hydra 67%
The model gave 67% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMalr1ne
51% · 104 games54% · 101 game
Wraith KingKami
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaArk
51% · 150 games41% · 52 games
Queen of PainAskold
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
42% · 59 games45% · 30 games
Legion CommanderBlizzy
Legion Commander
60% · 59 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
55% · 71 game
BaneZayac
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 76%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3