Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lionsignature
boombell · 22 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
Mirana
Q · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
375 picks · 531 bans
Bane
368 picks · 265 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 729 bans
Queen of Pain
244 picks · 338 bans
Io
240 picks · 604 bans
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:28
Fnatic 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 49:40.
Game 2prediction missed37:24
Fnatic 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 41:52.
Game 3prediction missed16:28
Fnatic 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 51%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3