Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
496 Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
496 Gaming
Marsoften banned
Red · 5 games
Dark Willow
Bombi · 3 games
Grimstroke
Bombi · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
373 picks · 531 bans
Bane
366 picks · 265 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 727 bans
Queen of Pain
243 picks · 338 bans
Io
240 picks · 603 bans
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed56:33
Lilgun 66%496 Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Lilgun — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 49:01.
Game 2prediction missed13:33
Lilgun 66%496 Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Lilgun — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 39:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 66%
Series result496 Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2