Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 530 bans
Bane
365 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
313 picks · 725 bans
Queen of Pain
242 picks · 337 bans
Io
240 picks · 601 bans
Ember Spirit
237 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 18%
Hero pool strength56% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:42
Arkosh Gaming 57%simply TOOBASED 43%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 51:10.
Game 2prediction missed22:40
Arkosh Gaming 57%simply TOOBASED 43%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 57%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2