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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ghost frogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
53%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
54%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%

Ghost frogs

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
j4 · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
j4 · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ulnit · 2 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Nukkumatti · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
j4 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 528 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
362 picks · 262 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 723 bans
56%
Io
Io
240 picks · 598 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
239 picks · 335 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 306 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 155 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct69:49
Brame 62%Ghost frogs 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 1:05:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaW1sh-
48% · 142 games56% · 78 games
RazorUlnit
Razor
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNefrit
45% · 63 games47% · 88 games
Queen of PainMastermind
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeSkyLark
45% · 80 games54% · 100 games
PangolierOwnedMe
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
52% · 176 games51% · 142 games
Nyx AssassinNukkumatti
Nyx Assassin
Silencer
SilencerSsaSpartan
50% · 58 games48% · 111 games
Disruptorj4
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct42:12
Brame 60%Ghost frogs 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNefrit
51% · 72 games44% · 194 games
LinaMastermind
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherSkyLark
52% · 50 games47% · 19 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Invoker
InvokerW1sh-
51% · 157 games52% · 85 games
Outworld DestroyerOwnedMe
Outworld Destroyer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCTOMAHEH1
40% · 103 games56% · 51 game
Silencerj4
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorSsaSpartan
49% · 112 games57% · 145 games
Nyx AssassinNukkumatti
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 72%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2