Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 530 bans
Bane
361 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 722 bans
Io
242 picks · 596 bans
Queen of Pain
238 picks · 335 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 306 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 85%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Entity 47%CIS Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 33:39.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Entity 47%CIS Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 37:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 53%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2