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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rajjix · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Excalibur · 4 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pablo · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pablo · 2 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Eixn · 2 games
50%

Into The Breach

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Era · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Peksu · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Era · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Charlie · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Era · 7 games
86%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Charlie · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Peksu · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 530 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
361 picks · 262 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 205 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 722 bans
56%
Io
Io
242 picks · 593 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
238 picks · 332 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 305 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 153 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:41
Team Bald Reborn 54%Into The Breach 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 52:02.
Game 2prediction missed16:39
Team Bald Reborn 54%Into The Breach 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:20.
Game 3prediction correct21:11
Team Bald Reborn 54%Into The Breach 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 54%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3