Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
Silencer
Solo · 5 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
Snapfire
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 14 games
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
W1sh- · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
374 picks · 529 bans
Bane
360 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 723 bans
Io
241 picks · 592 bans
Queen of Pain
237 picks · 333 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:11
Natus Vincere 42%Brame 58%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerV-Tune
Nature's ProphetW1sh-
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
LunaNefrit
Spirit BreakerGeneRaL
TimbersawSkyLark
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
Nyx AssassinCTOMAHEH1
SilencerSolo
IoSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed42:24
Natus Vincere 42%Brame 58%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingV-Tune
InvokerW1sh-
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Dark SeerSkyLark
EnigmaGeneRaL
LifestealerNefrit
BaneALOHADANCE
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
SilencerSolo
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2