Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 17 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 13 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Blizzy · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
372 picks · 527 bans
Bane
355 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 203 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 719 bans
Io
240 picks · 589 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 152 bans
Queen of Pain
232 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Team Tickles 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 22:33.
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Team Tickles 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:29.
Game 3prediction correct16:37
Team Tickles 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3