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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolier
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No!ob · 12 games
42%

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 18 games
61%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 528 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
354 picks · 258 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 720 bans
56%
Io
Io
240 picks · 588 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 308 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 152 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
232 picks · 719 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Spider Pigzs 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaThuG
46% · 118 games53% · 180 games
KunkkaKiritych
Kunkka
Mars
MarsFunn1k
44% · 336 games59% · 204 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo!ob
44% · 145 games50% · 56 games
EnigmaTheChosenOne
Enigma
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
49% · 119 games47% · 200 games
RubickHeaven
Rubick
Weaver
Weaverdnz
47% · 148 games59% · 226 games
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct37:42
Spider Pigzs 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:04:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingThuG
50% · 148 games54% · 239 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerNo!ob
51% · 154 games42% · 46 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerFunn1k
43% · 64 games47% · 170 games
Dragon KnightTheChosenOne
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
Grimstrokednz
47% · 210 games54% · 205 games
MiranaHeaven
Mirana
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
54% · 224 games53% · 140 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2