Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 528 bans
Bane
353 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
310 picks · 720 bans
Io
239 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 152 bans
Monkey King
233 picks · 719 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total59% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
Invictus Gaming 59%Royal Never Give Up 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 33:47.
Game 2prediction missed9:16
Invictus Gaming 59%Royal Never Give Up 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 29:01.
Game 3prediction missed42:36
Invictus Gaming 59%Royal Never Give Up 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 57:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 59%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3