?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Pyw · 12 games
42%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
ELeVeN · 11 games
36%

LBZS

Lion
Lion
CatYou · 2 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Fonte · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Irving · 2 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
CatYou · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 528 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 258 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 716 bans
56%
Io
Io
238 picks · 582 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 152 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 716 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 308 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Vici Gaming 60%LBZS 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
46% · 68 games55% · 168 games
LeshracShanks
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
48% · 84 games59% · 85 games
Night StalkerMolasses
Night Stalker
Pangolier
PangolierIrving
40% · 109 games51% · 165 games
IoCatYou
Io
Phoenix
PhoenixYds
43% · 81 game
Disruptor
DisruptorVictoria
48% · 76 games
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Vici Gaming 63%LBZS 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
64% · 75 games41% · 251 game
LinaShanks
Lina
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
53% · 66 games48% · 106 games
Spirit BreakerCatYou
Spirit Breaker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetIrving
46% · 78 games47% · 31 game
VenomancerMolasses
Venomancer
Pangolier
PangolierYds
58% · 81 game
Bane
BaneVictoria
55% · 88 games
Game 3prediction correct27:7
Vici Gaming 61%LBZS 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerpoyoyo
54% · 69 games45% · 92 games
RazorShanks
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
45% · 128 games47% · 256 games
MarsMolasses
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetIrving
50% · 163 games52% · 127 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYds
55% · 84 games
Jakiro
JakiroVictoria
56% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 69%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3