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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 13 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
XinQ · 11 games
73%

Team Aster

Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 11 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 530 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 256 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 716 bans
57%
Io
Io
239 picks · 579 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
235 picks · 154 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 721 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 313 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 30%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total88% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:50
LGD Gaming 73%Team Aster 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 50:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
51% · 77 games56% · 223 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
47% · 364 games54% · 209 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 465 games45% · 403 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
60% · 225 games43% · 221 game
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
49% · 125 games48% · 200 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct22:20
LGD Gaming 75%Team Aster 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
51% · 247 games56% · 131 game
Templar AssassinMonet
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
51% · 180 games48% · 150 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFaith_bian
55% · 119 games47% · 355 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
44% · 331 game45% · 297 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Bane
Baney`
60% · 194 games44% · 138 games
EnchantressFantasy
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct28:33
LGD Gaming 73%Team Aster 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 54:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
58% · 211 games44% · 138 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
41% · 15 games52% · 231 game
LinaOri
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
44% · 179 games54% · 176 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyXinQ
56% · 160 games45% · 249 games
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
Grimstroke
Tidehunter
Tidehuntery`
48% · 252 games48% · 23 games
DawnbreakerFantasy
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 88%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3