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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO5
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 3:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 17 games
59%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tims · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 13 games
54%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 534 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 256 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
320 picks · 719 bans
57%
Io
Io
243 picks · 573 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
238 picks · 154 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
235 picks · 731 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 315 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:34
Neon Esports 35%Royal Never Give Up 65%
The model gave 65% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 37:21.
Game 2prediction missed39:16
Neon Esports 35%Royal Never Give Up 65%
The model gave 65% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:26.
Game 3prediction missed18:8
Neon Esports 35%Royal Never Give Up 65%
The model gave 65% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:11.
Game 4prediction missed33:19
Neon Esports 35%Royal Never Give Up 65%
The model gave 65% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 65%
Series resultNeon Esports 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4