Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 17 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 17 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 13 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 540 bans
Bane
351 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 724 bans
Io
242 picks · 570 bans
Disruptor
240 picks · 154 bans
Monkey King
238 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
236 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:28
Neon Esports 22%Invictus Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 47:01.
Game 2prediction missed36:32
Neon Esports 22%Invictus Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:30.
Game 3prediction correct17:44
Neon Esports 22%Invictus Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 78%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3