Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 23 games
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 21 game
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 14 games
Team Aster
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 539 bans
Bane
348 picks · 256 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 721 bans
Io
242 picks · 571 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 153 bans
Monkey King
241 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
236 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:24
Team SMG 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMidOne
Shadow FiendOri
Queen of PainMoon
Faceless VoidMonet
Elder TitanAhFu
Legion CommanderXxs
BaneRoddgeee
IoBoBoKa
50% · 107 games
DisruptorFantasy
Game 2prediction correct39:27
Team SMG 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritMoon
Phantom AssassinMonet
Monkey KingMidOne
Queen of PainXxs
WeaverAhFu
Void SpiritOri
AbaddonRoddgeee
Dark WillowBoBoKa
42% · 183 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2