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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
No Hoodwinkwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Hoodwink

No games played over 6 months.

PuckChamp

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 7 games
14%
Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 227 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 641 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 345 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 230 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
304 picks · 293 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
293 picks · 397 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 424 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% No Hoodwink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
No Hoodwink 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by No Hoodwink.
Game 2prediction correct37:35
No Hoodwink 54%PuckChamp 46%
The model gave 54% on No Hoodwink — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 1:03:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrubikon155
58% · 74 games56% · 153 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
LycanInfernal
55% · 103 games42% · 289 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
51% · 541 game42% · 171 game
Slardarkrol9ash
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKatari_
47% · 198 games48% · 54 games
Winter WyvernHyugadoto
Winter Wyvern
Mirana
Miranaasdekor_r
56% · 70 games47% · 319 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 51%
Series resultNo Hoodwink 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2