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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 5 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pyw · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dy · 4 games
75%

iG Vitality

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Io
Iosignature
Dogf1ghts · 6 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Clinkz
Clinkz
ukiyo · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
QYQX · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 540 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
348 picks · 257 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 721 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 736 bans
55%
Io
Io
242 picks · 570 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 156 bans
51%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
236 picks · 376 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Xtreme Gaming 66%iG Vitality 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAnother
54% · 127 games49% · 140 games
Troll Warlordukiyo
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPaparazi
52% · 83 games52% · 221 game
LinaButterflyEffect
Lina
Mars
MarsSrf
45% · 216 games49% · 176 games
Dark WillowQYQX
Dark Willow
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
52% · 61 game59% · 90 games
EarthshakerDogf1ghts
Earthshaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
37% · 140 games
Game 2prediction correct40:12
Xtreme Gaming 66%iG Vitality 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPaparazi
61% · 104 games42% · 60 games
Phantom Assassinukiyo
Phantom Assassin
Spectre
SpectreAnother
49% · 63 games48% · 161 game
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSrf
43% · 58 games46% · 106 games
RubickDogf1ghts
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPyw
55% · 93 games47% · 79 games
Dark WillowQYQX
Dark Willow
Bane
BaneDy
58% · 88 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 72%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2