Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 542 bans
Bane
347 picks · 256 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 721 bans
Monkey King
244 picks · 739 bans
Disruptor
243 picks · 156 bans
Io
241 picks · 573 bans
Tidehunter
237 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:36
Invictus Gaming 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:49.
Game 2prediction missed33:41
Invictus Gaming 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 48:42.
Game 3prediction missed32:11
Invictus Gaming 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3