Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Phoenix
Boomy · 7 games
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yowe · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Team Aster
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
368 picks · 544 bans
Bane
344 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
324 picks · 719 bans
Monkey King
244 picks · 740 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 156 bans
Io
240 picks · 570 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
TNC Predator 37%Team Aster 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckYowe
LinaOri
KunkkaYoungGodLevi
RazorMonet
Outworld Destroyerxiaoyu154
MarsXxs
Dark WillowPlayHard
IoBoBoKa
GrimstrokeFebby
BaneFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1