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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
75%

TNC Predator

Phoenix
Phoenix
Boomy · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
20%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 256 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 203 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
322 picks · 718 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
245 picks · 738 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 156 bans
51%
Io
Io
239 picks · 569 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
236 picks · 378 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 18%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
Team Aster 49%TNC Predator 51%
The model gave 51% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMonet
44% · 117 games61% · 179 games
Templar AssassinYowe
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckOri
43% · 293 games50% · 154 games
KunkkaYoungGodLevi
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixBoBoKa
53% · 147 games53% · 101 game
Spirit Breakerxiaoyu154
Spirit Breaker
Mars
MarsXxs
40% · 313 games55% · 275 games
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
Nyx Assassin
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFantasy
44% · 55 games56% · 216 games
EnchantressFebby
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Team Aster 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
51% · 101 game48% · 126 games
Queen of PainYoungGodLevi
Queen of Pain
Wraith King
Wraith KingMonet
57% · 139 games45% · 123 games
RazorYowe
Razor
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXxs
50% · 128 games54% · 119 games
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
55% · 110 games44% · 149 games
RubickPlayHard
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoBoKa
47% · 131 game48% · 92 games
Spirit BreakerFebby
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2