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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V-Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 18 games
61%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 17 games
59%

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 37 games
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
61%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 27 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 23 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 256 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 203 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
322 picks · 718 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
244 picks · 741 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 157 bans
51%
Io
Io
240 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
236 picks · 378 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head8 – 3
Model total60% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:19
Nemiga Gaming 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
52% · 151 game50% · 140 games
KunkkaTA2000
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAinkrad
49% · 112 games48% · 225 games
LinahAze
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTheChosenOne
43% · 100 games56% · 72 games
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickHeaven
46% · 149 games52% · 255 games
WeaverArrOw
Weaver
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
56% · 180 games
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1