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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lion
NARMAN · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 15 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 13 games
62%

TNC Predator

Phoenix
Phoenix
Boomy · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 546 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 257 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 203 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
322 picks · 718 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
245 picks · 740 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 157 bans
51%
Io
Io
239 picks · 568 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
236 picks · 378 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 20%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:20
Neon Esports 56%TNC Predator 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingPalos
50% · 243 games47% · 133 games
LunaYoungGodLevi
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
47% · 358 games44% · 342 games
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerEnryu
52% · 127 games50% · 198 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Weaver
WeaverNARMAN
53% · 202 games56% · 133 games
IoFebby
Io
50% · 124 games
Dark WillowPlayHard
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct28:26
Neon Esports 55%TNC Predator 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
50% · 47 games45% · 100 games
Queen of PainYoungGodLevi
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
51% · 111 games54% · 56 games
Spirit Breakerxiaoyu154
Spirit Breaker
Mars
MarsEnryu
48% · 338 games45% · 173 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
57% · 149 games44% · 190 games
SnapfirePlayHard
Snapfire
55% · 126 games
Elder TitanFebby
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2