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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
75%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 8 games
63%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 8 games
50%

Neon Esports

Lion
Lion
NARMAN · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 14 games
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
344 picks · 259 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 203 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 715 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
247 picks · 743 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
240 picks · 157 bans
51%
Io
Io
240 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
237 picks · 378 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 27%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:28
Team Aster 63%Neon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomXxs
58% · 99 games43% · 122 games
Phantom AssassinPalos
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainOri
49% · 98 games48% · 126 games
LeshracMamangDaya
Leshrac
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
51% · 91 game54% · 110 games
Outworld DestroyerEnryu
Outworld Destroyer
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
51% · 151 game50% · 294 games
LionNARMAN
Lion
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
49% · 213 games
Game 2prediction missed18:24
Team Aster 61%Neon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMonet
49% · 142 games52% · 128 games
TerrorbladePalos
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
46% · 301 game49% · 280 games
PuckMamangDaya
Puck
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXxs
48% · 56 games52% · 26 games
BroodmotherEnryu
Broodmother
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
48% · 39 games55% · 132 games
MiranaNARMAN
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerFantasy
52% · 28 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2