Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 14 games
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Xtreme Gaming
Bane
Dy · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 5 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dy · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
374 picks · 546 bans
Bane
349 picks · 261 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 208 bans
Weaver
329 picks · 715 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 755 bans
Io
240 picks · 569 bans
Tidehunter
240 picks · 381 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
Vici Gaming 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXm
LunaAnother
DoomIrving
PuckPaparazi
Queen of Painpoyoyo
MarsSrf
TuskYds
HoodwinkPyw
BaneVictoria
Winter WyvernDy
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Vici Gaming 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorpoyoyo
Storm SpiritPaparazi
LeshracXm
Wraith KingAnother
TimbersawIrving
MarsSrf
PangolierYds
Dark WillowPyw
DisruptorVictoria
IoDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2